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Prediction for CME (2024-05-15T10:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-15T10:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30940/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the NNE in all coronagraphs. Observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211 as a loop centered over an unnumbered region on the disk ~N35E35. This loop slowly begins rising around 2024-05-16T06:30Z before before explosively erupting and breaking around 2024-05-16T09:15Z. A broad area of dimming to the N and E of this area is observed in SDO AIA 193 with the eruption, a double ribbon flare is observed in SDO AIA 304 underneath this loop, and a post-eruptive arcade starts forming around 2024-05-16T10:09Z. No clear CME arrival signature found in real time solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-19T04:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30942/1
Model Inputs:
2024-05-15T10:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-13.0, Lat.=46.0, Speed=805.0, HalfAngle=31.0, Time21.5=2024-05-15T15:08Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-05-19T04:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-21T23:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-18T19:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240515_150800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240515_150800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240515_150800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240515_150800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240515_150800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240515_150800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240515_150800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240515_150800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240515_150800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240515_150800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240515_150800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240515_150800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240515_150800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240515_150800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240515_150800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 59.02 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-05-16T16:59Z

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